Note: I composed this blog back on 5/26/2016 per my records, but then again this could just be the date of the old print-out I used; not totally sure. In any event, I composed this no later than then. I altered this for spelling, punctuation, and SEO, but I also had to add a little more text to this article to make it make any sense.
I don't like to do this sort of thing.
Why I'm Bullish over Afghanistan
Well, folks, for all my tough love sentiment, never take me for a pessimist—I ain't. Places like Afghanistan are in a mighty bad place, but even so, they could still be worse—a lot worse. Back when we were only beginning counter-insurgency work there, in 2002, I distinctly recall him saying that this kind of task takes roughly twenty years, and here we are, more than halfway through. If we start counting from early 2002, when our first Afghan military training began, then we're fourteen years through.
Can't we congratulate ourselves for having stuck it out this far? If we can just tough it out a bit longer, then we'll be the most successful westerners to leave a mark here since Alexander the Great founded the Bactrian Kingdom.
Why Can't We Celebrate Our Afghan Success?
We've thus far not simply endured the bullets 'n bombs of the Taliban, but also the toxic rantings of Hamid Karzai, and the ghosts of Vietnam, as well as all the repeated nay-saying, back home. And, what else must we endure betwixt now and the end, anywho? We've also endured an apathetic president, who, according to Robert Gates, at least, doesn't truly believe in the mission, but yet has done a pretty good job here, even so.
We've endured setbacks, fickle allies, and plenty of PR pitfall, but despite that, the Afghan military is still in the field, and while we still need to be there, too, our presence is still far from the peak of involvement. The goal is to exercise our leverage, and that is all our firepower from the air; well, we have been moving towards that, with some hiccups, in between, the handover of military control following the 2014 Afghan Election being foremost.
In Defense of Hamid Karzai
The bad news of that has been obvious: The Taliban has never held so much territory since 2001, and their brief taking of Kunduz rattled souls, but that has obscured the positive. And that, friend, is that it showed them just how much they need us. Karzai's rhetoric harbored certain fantasies, but the Taliban has kindly shattered them.
Look, he said. The Taliban are riled up because of all those nasty foreigners, and if they left, we'd be able to simply patch things up, with them, as all true Afghans can. For all his screeds, he had a certain amount of truth, and as nationalist to fellow nationalist, I could still sympathize, and even root, for him.
He didn't want to be labeled a Vichy traitor, and for that, who can blame him?
His words bittered the waters, but still, the training, raids, and patrols proceeded. His handling of a continued US presence, as well as Afghan elections, clearly, left much to be desired, but they still bore their own punishments.
Thanks to his banning international observers, it directly led to the disputed election of Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, and that fiasco, thanks to Karzai, has only succeeded in re-asserting the need for international involvement.
Thanks to the premature, or poorly done, handover of security to the Afghans, much of the same has occurred. A lot of people have needlessly died, but still, it was a lesson both the Afghan people, and their leaders, needed to learn.
Thanks to Karzai and all his vitriol, he has sucked up much of the poison his successors would have otherwise felt to needle us with. It stings, but still, Ghani and Abdullah, needing to run against Karzai, were duly obliged to play the good cop to US involvement in Afghanistan, as opposed to Karzai's gad cop. Usually, the incumbent plays the maligned ally's defender, but Karzai done flipped the script, did he not?
But enough of Afghan macro-politics, for now. Instead let's look at the US withdrawal though the eyes of a theoretical Afghan Army Officer, shall we?
The US Withdrawal from Afghanistan Through the Eyes of an Afghan Army Officer
At first, he welcomes handover. And then the pay starts getting...irregular. And the chow's not as good. Patrol missions stop being as orderly, too, and the enemy notices.
And oh, how he notices.
More firefights than usual. And more casualties, as well. You call for reinforcements, only to be told that you're it. Desertions increase in the meantime, and tide rises. In time, you're hunkered down in yer outpost. Just outside the village, enduring a daily dose of shelling.
And then local elder appears a guy you've had a decent relationship with, but the message is black. Take your men and go, he says. He can guarantee safe passage for week, but after that, they'll attack, and the village will support them, when they do.
The week passes slowly. Your regular reports to HQ become a rite of hope, and despair. You're on your own, and everyone knows it. And yet you still report—a soldier's due ritual.
But this time, you hear an unexpected voice, penetrating the monotonous crackle. One with an American accent.
And at that, you feel obliged to thank your God.
Afghanistan's Future, Going Forward...
Currently, at the time of this writing, Kabul is feeling unease over Ghani and Abdullah's divvied government, but at least they're not blaming foreigners for the ongoing gridlock; no. Security coordination has improved, and for that, and for the consequences of us not being there, they aren't complaining. And, the public, more pleasingly, aren't, either.
The public, instead is blaming their government itself, and that's a good sign. To that end, they've formed a party on the platform of demanding early elections, and are threatening it with protests, should their demands go unmet.
Al least, they're not talking coups, or revolution; democracies aren't all liberal, and sometimes, take an ill-liberal hue, especially when first formed; that seems to fit the Afghan variety, at present, to a T.
Yeah, Afghanistan has problems, great problems, but then again, 17th century Britain, awash in religious and democratic ferment, had great problems, as well. In fifty years, if we can just stay on our present course, I think this will be looked back a a big success, but the labor pains are too severe for us to look to that perspective.
You can call me a dreamer, but I don't think, if we can just stay on the bronco, that it's a waste. Democratic habits take time to form, and the concept of process starts with mindset. If their security forces can just jell, and the Taliban can be incorporated into the the political process, then I think they've got a good chance of hanging onto the democracy they've been handed. They say ethnically diverse countries hang on to democracy better than the ethnically homogenous, and for that, we can only hope.
At least, I do.
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